Minor shoots for fourth straight win in rubber match with Marlins

Baseball Betting Lines

09/05/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rookie Mike Minor goes for a fourth straight win this afternoon when the Atlanta Braves play the rubber match of their three-game series against the Florida Marlins at Sun Life Stadium.

After getting a no-decision in his big league debut, Minor has ripped off three straight wins and beat the New York Mets his last time out. Minor allowed two runs and seven hits in five innings of that one to lower his earned run average to 3.91.

This will be his first-ever appearance against the Marlins, who will hand the ball to Alex Sanabia in his last start before serving a five-game suspension for his role in Wednesday's wild brawl with the Washington Nationals.

Sanabia is slated to start his suspension this coming Wednesday, pending appeal.

Sanabia lost to the Nationals on Monday, surrendering four runs and seven hits in 5 2/3 innings, dropping him to 3-2 to go along with a 3.98 ERA. He did not get a decision against the Braves earlier in the year, but allowed just one run in 4 1/3 innings of that 7-6 win.

On Saturday, Jair Jurrjens and two relievers combined on a four-hitter as Atlanta stifled Florida, 2-0.

Jurrjens (7-4) allowed three hits, while he walked three and fanned seven to earn his first win on the road this season. Jonny Venters retired the side in order in the eighth and Billy Wagner worked the ninth to record his 32nd save for the Braves, who maintained their one-game lead over Philadelphia in the NL East after the Phillies edged Milwaukee.

"They had Josh Johnson going tonight, one of the best in baseball and he showed why he is, but JJ matched about everything he did," said Braves manager Bobby Cox of his starter. "He was really on target and when you're going up against someone like that you need to pitch like an ace, and he did."

Alex Gonzalez drove in both runs for the Braves, while Omar Infante and Martin Prado each contributed two hits for Atlanta, which has won six out of eight.

Johnson (11-6) was the hard-luck loser after allowing two runs on eight hits while walking three and matching a career-high with 12 strikeouts in six innings for the Marlins, who had a three-game win streak halted.

Atlanta has won eight of its 14 matchups with the Marlins this season.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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